@ TimWorstall.com

Bit of a stretch, surely?

The shape of British summers to come?

It’s been a dull, damp few months and some scientists think we need to get used to it. Melting ice in Greenland could be bringing permanent changes to our climate

Island in North Atlantic has rain in summer.

Climate change proven.

Bit of a stretch isn’t it?

And how do you explain the Irish bleedin’ weather for the past 5 millennia with that idea?

The MetOffice regional climate models predict warmer drier summers and milder but wetter winters; and it was on this basis that the MetO responded to the Quarmby enquiry on transport resilience to harsh winters.

And from the early nineties onwards, voila, the British climate played along with this narrative. To such a degree that it was regularly rolled out as "proof" of GW. One prof even contributed an article to the Observer about the tragedy of British kids missing out on their snowy winters.

This all changed in 2007 when the jet stream shifted south (after years of inching ever northwards, again used as evidence of GW) and suddenly we seemed to have a regime of colder but drier winters and cooler soggier summers.

So what's up? We can't forecast future climate! Our regional forecasts are not skilful. GCM's appeared to be able to hindcast global means for the last 160 years (but not the other three moments: standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis), and I understand that skill will decrease for AR5. Our models are too stable to explain paleoclimate data.

No big deal, science doesn't have to have all the answers; except that's exactly what scientists on the climate debate seem to do, they are desperate to link our day to day weather and climate with the global warming narrative: record freeze, climate change; monsoon summer, climate change; forest fires: climate change. To such a degree that we can't trust them any more. After all if science makes predictions and the polar opposite occurs and is still proclaimed proof, then its not a science, it's a cargo cult.